What Is The Biggest Risk To The Economy in 2025
Source: YouTube · Eurodollar University · published Jul 24, 2024 · 2:10:41
The BIS uses five early warning indicators to identify countries with excessive private credit expansion that have a 50% chance of experiencing a systemic banking crisis within three years.
Key Takeaways:
• South Korea remains persistently flagged as the highest risk country on the BIS banking crisis indicators 00:02:30
• Other countries at risk include Hungary, Canada, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Turkey, Norway, Israel, Sweden, Australia, Finland, and Czech Republic 00:04:15
• High debt levels are more likely to result in prolonged sub-trend growth rather than sudden treasury market collapse or debt repugnance 01:15:40
The current economic environment shows many developed nations flagged for potential banking issues, though these indicators aren't foolproof and may take years to materialize.
Sources:
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First 800 characters of the transcript
all right the first question was an update on your banking system report uh Emil that you had of the total global banking system and where the the risks were if you had an update for that at all I do have it I don't have it handy but the idea is basically that the bis puts together uh five early warning indicators for private credit expansion they say it's not public debt that's going to unsettle en Royal the system it's private credit that then Cascade over into the rest of the economy potentially and so they put together five different early warning indicators and they updated quarterly but not in a very handy way some of the reports you have to you have to put the data together into your own model so it's a little frustrating but basically uh South Korea continues to run hot and that's …