Banks Just Placed the Same Bet They Did Before 2008
Source: YouTube · Eurodollar University · published Jul 14, 2025 · 23:11
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns about inflation from tariffs and predicts higher interest rates, while his bank does the opposite by increasing Treasury holdings 0:00.
Key Takeaways:
• Dimon claims markets are underestimating inflation from tariffs and predicts the Fed will raise rates, not lower them 1:51
• JPMorgan's balance sheet shows massive Treasury purchases despite Dimon's inflation warnings - increasing by 39% in just three quarters 7:47
• This contradiction isn't new - in 2018-2019, Dimon predicted 4-5% Treasury yields while his bank increased holdings by 253% 10:35
• The broader banking sector is also betting against inflation with record Treasury holdings nearing $2 trillion 20:00
The banking sector's actions suggest they're positioning for deflationary conditions despite Dimon's repeated inflation warnings 22:48.
Sources:
- 0:00 Introduction to Dimon's tariff inflation warning
- 1:51 Dimon's prediction of higher rates and inflation
- 7:47 JPMorgan's increasing Treasury holdings data
- 10:35 Previous contradictions in 2018-2019
- 20:00 Broader banking sector Treasury holdings
- 22:48 Conclusion about banks positioning for deflation
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First 800 characters of the transcript
JP Morgan CEO Jaime Diamond has a huge warning for everyone. He says the world is underestimating the impact from tariffs. Only he's not talking about unemployment and a fall-off in global trade. He means inflation and a lot of it. So much he says the Federal Reserve is going to be raising rates, not lowering them. So among other things, Diamond is telling bond holders to get out of treasuries while they still can. higher for longer isn't dead. Its hibernation was transitory. But that's not the real interesting or important part. Now JP Morgan itself, the bank that Diamond leads, it's also giving us a huge warning. This one coming from what's on its balance sheet. Here's the thing, though. The bank's investment holdings, they're not lining up at all with Jaime Diamond's statements, leaving…